Modelling changing suitability for tree fruits in complex terrain
Changes in regional suitability for sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) 'Sweetheart' production were modelled for historic and future climates in three regions in British Columbia, Canada using a combination of dormancy, spring phenology and fruit growth models. Spring frost, minimum and maximum temperature risks and growing season heat requirement were assessed against pre-determined thresholds. Suitability was assigned for each decade 1961-2040 using acceptable annual occurrence thresholds. In response to changing climate between 1961 and 2010, the current cherry growing region in the Okanagan Basin has extended northward and upslope. Projected changes in production in response to temperature data from two climate change scenarios CanESM2_rcp4.5 and CanESM2_rcp8.5 suggest that the area suitable for production could expand further north into the south Cariboo region (latitude 51°6' to 51°57' N and longitude 120°31' to 122°50' W) by 2040.
Neilsen, D., Smith, S., Bourgeois, G., Qian, B., Cannon, A., Neilsen, G. and Losso, I. (2017). Modelling changing suitability for tree fruits in complex terrain. Acta Hortic. 1160, 207-214
phenology, dormancy, risk analysis, sweet cherry, climate change