Spatio-temporal analysis of long-term (1961-2010) changes of temperature extremes in Serbia

M. Ruml, E. Gregorić, G. Matović, M. Vujadinović, V. Počuča, A. Vuković
Agriculture is particularly sensitive to rapid changes in average climate conditions as well as in extreme weather events. This study analysed annual time series of temperature extremes from 26 uniformly distributed climatological stations across Serbia over the period 1961-2010. A total of 11 ETCCDI (expert team on climate change detection and indices) indices, which describe different characteristics of hot and cold extremes, such as intensity, frequency and duration, were calculated using the R-based software package RClimDex. They include: summer and tropical days, frost and ice days, tropical nights, warm and cool days, warm and cool nights, warm and cold spell duration indicators. Temporal trends of indices were determined by a least-squares linear regression method for each station and for the entire Serbian territory using the average series. Significant decadal changes (confidence level ≥95%) indicating warming trend were found in almost all temperature indices for most stations, except in ice days and cold spell duration indicator. The moving t-test was applied to detect an abrupt change point in a time series. For the majority of indices considered, the greatest differences between the indices means were displayed for periods before and after the year 1998.
Ruml, M., Gregorić, E., Matović, G., Vujadinović, M., Počuča, V. and Vuković, A. (2021). Spatio-temporal analysis of long-term (1961-2010) changes of temperature extremes in Serbia. Acta Hortic. 1308, 113-120
DOI: 10.17660/ActaHortic.2021.1308.18
temperature trends, ETCCDI indices, climate change, RClimDex, the moving t-test

Acta Horticulturae