EVALUATING LONG TERM EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT MARKET POLICIES FOR PERENNIAL CROPS IN THE ENLARGED EUROPEAN COMMUNITY

The actual EC-market policy for fruit crops is criticized by consumers and agricultural economists, because it is believed to be inefficient and to create structural supply surplus in the long run. These problems are likely to aggravate after the EC-enlargement, since Spain is an important producer of fruit crops. A market simulation model for perennial crops was constructed to evaluate the long term effects of the actual and alternative market policies on producers, consumers, trade, processing industry and the EC-budget. Following a brief model description, the problems of measuring the welfare of the affected groups and the criteria applied in the model are discussed. Finally exemplary simulation results of the European apple market are presented showing the distributional effects of the actual and alternative market policies. The varied policy parameters include the EC-intervention system, clearing subsidies and foreign trade regulations.