MARKET MODELS FOR ANALYZING AND FORECASTING THE PRICES OF HORTICULTURAL CROPS

Causal analytic market models which take into account the functional relations between the main price affecting factors are developed to analyze and forecast the price formation on selected German vegetable markets. A pragmatic approach using Newtons iteration algorithm to calculate market equilibriums without parameter estimation is used to determine the structural relationships of such market models. Parameter setting and the choice of different function types can be tested with empirical data by long run simulations.