CONSIDERATION OF RISK IN PRODUCTION PLANNING

Plant production is especially characterized by uncertain environmental conditions which result in risky decisions. In order to support horticultural managers in dealing with uncertainty, a model will be developed which is considering risk factors of horticultural production.

The paper starts with an analysis of the subject. Risk, which is influencing plant production, is divided into various categories. Possibilities to handle risky situations are condensed to measures of precaution and adaptation.

An empirical investigation in potplant firms considering problems of daily work in horticultural production verifies and extends the theoretical framework. It also provides information about practical experiences in production planning. The results of this investigation, especially with regard to risk factors, will basically influence the development of the production planning model. In the deterministic planning system of BUCHWALD there are growth and cost functions which shall be incorporated in the new stochastic model.