PREDICTIVE SPATIAL MODELLING OF ALTERNATIVE CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR THE FOOT-AND- MOUTH DISEASE EPIDEMIC IN GREAT BRITAIN, 2001
A spatial simulation model of foot-and-mouth disease was used in March and early April 2001 to evaluate alternative control policies for the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Control policies were those in operation from 20 March 2001 and comprised a ban on all animal movements fro 23 February 2001 and a stamping-out policy. Each simulation commenced with the known population of infected farms on 10 April 2001, and ran for 200 days. For the control policy which best approximated that actually implemented from late March, the model predicted an epidemic of approximately 1,800 to 1,900 affected farms, and estimated that the epidemic would be eradicated between July and October 2001, with a low probability of continuing beyond October 2001. This policy included slaughter out of infected farms within 24 hours, slaughter of about 1.3 of the surrounding farms per infected farm within a further 48 hours, and minimal inter-farm movements of susceptible animals. Delays in slaughter of infected farms beyond 24 hours after diagnosis slightly increased the epidemic size, and failure to achieve pre-emptive slaughter on an adequate number of at-risk farms substantially increased the expected size of the epidemic. Vaccination of up to three of the most outbreak-dense areas carried out in conjunction with the adopted control policy reduced the predicted size of the epidemic by less than 100 farms. Vaccination of buffer zones (designed to apply available vaccine and manpower as effectively as possible) carried out in place of the adopted control policy allowed the disease to spread out of control, producing an epidemic involving over 6,000 farms by October 2001, with no prospect of immediate eradication.
Morris, R.S., Wilesmith, J.W., Stern, M.W., Sanson, R.L. and Stevenson, M.A. (2001). PREDICTIVE SPATIAL MODELLING OF ALTERNATIVE CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR THE FOOT-AND- MOUTH DISEASE EPIDEMIC IN GREAT BRITAIN, 2001. Acta Hortic. 566, 337-347
foot-and-mouth disease, epidemiology, disease modelling