DEVELOPING AN ECONOMIC MODEL SYSTEM OF THE VEGETABLE PRODUCTION SECTOR IN GERMANY
As a response to changes in the supply chain, the structure of horticulture in Germany has developed quickly over the past few decades. To manage current and future externalities, experts are interested in the evaluation of policies for selected sections or regions of concentrated horticulture production. To forecast the economic development of different sectors, a quantitative and dynamic simulation model was designed at the Centre of Business Management in Horticulture and Applied Research (ZBG). To reduce complexity, the model focuses on the vegetable production sector, using the most comprehensive collection of depersonalized accounting data from horticultural farms in Germany. In a first step, the most important factors affecting the business performance are identified from the data. These factors are internal such as the size of the farm, expenses, income and data from the balance sheet, as well as quantitative external influencing factors. Assumptions about their interdependencies are tested and quantified with statistical methods. The model includes labour, area under cultivation, technical equipment, investment and financing, product factors and services and production. The model works by varying external conditions and adjustment strategies in the sector. It calculates the annual results for each individual farm over a maximum period of ten years. At the end, all results of the individual farms can be summarized and analyzed. However, the depersonalized accounting data does not allow conclusions to be made on individual production methods, cultivated plants and external influencing factors, which makes it difficult to interpret different behaviours within a group. Finally the model reproduces managerial processes on an abstract level. Single interdependencies in the model can be estimated satisfactorily from a statistical point of view to suggest possible short-term adjustment strategies.
Kölbel , C. and Lentz, W. (2012). DEVELOPING AN ECONOMIC MODEL SYSTEM OF THE VEGETABLE PRODUCTION SECTOR IN GERMANY. Acta Hortic. 930, 147-153
forecast, business management, regression, time series, management ratios